With COVID-19 vaccinations on the rise and the number of cases in decline, the signs are looking up that cruising will return soon, according to Frank Del Rio, president and CEO of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Inc. (NCLH)
What’s more, he said the cruise industry could be heading for something of a “boom time” as pent-up demand is finally unleashed.
In fact, the NCLH brands – Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises and Regent Seven Seas Cruises – have experienced a 40 percent increase in bookings in the first two months of 2021 over the last two months of 2020. Over 80 percent of those bookings were new cash bookings.
“I think this is the making of a boom time for the cruise industry since we can’t expand supply any faster than what’s coming online,” Del Rio said during a quarterly earnings call with financial analysts. “Of all the things we worry about, filling vessels and generating demand just isn’t one of them.”
All NCLH cruise brands currently are shuttered through May 31, 2021. Despite the optimism shown on the financial call, Del Rio said 2020 was “without a doubt the most challenging year in the company’s 50-plus-year history.” Revenue decreased 80.2 percent to $1.3 billion, compared to $6.5 billion in 2019.
Overall, the number of ships in the North American market has declined since some companies sold older tonnage during the pandemic. And when cruising restarts, it will likely be with ships at 50 percent passenger capacity. Pricing is already starting to rise, Del Rio said.
“The industry has been shut down at least one year, so that’s 30 million people who would’ve cruised that haven’t cruised,” he said. “There’s going to be a squeeze play here where demand exceeds supply.”
Of course, it all depends on the number of COVID-19 cases continuing to fall.
“We all knew vaccinations would ultimately be the deciding factor,” Del Rio said, adding that experts say it’s possible to reach herd immunity this summer.
Exactly when cruising will resume remains uncertain. “We don’t know when that start date is,” he said. “Directionally we’re heading in the right direction to the eventual return to cruising.”
The cruise industry continues to wait for the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) to give the green light. “It could be in a few days or a few weeks, I don’t know,” Del Rio said.
When cruising does open up – and travel restrictions lift – it would take six or seven months for NCLH brands to return to full operation with all 28 ships, probably returning one ship to service per week.
Many of those booking now are over 65 years old, the group that is getting vaccinated. The average age on Oceania and Regent is 66 or 67.
“These are the folks getting the vaccine first, they’ve been cooped up and they want to go cruise. They have the money and they’re booking further out,” Del Rio said. “Early in the pandemic, people were writing off the mature market. It’s been anything but that. As you know, upscale brands tend to book further out than contemporary brands, partly because of longer, more exotic itineraries. We’re continuing to see that. Both Oceania and Regent are 40 percent booked for 2022, which is much better that’s ever been at this stage of the booking cycle.”
Del Rio also noted that, “since the fall at least, the company no longer offers future cruise credits when canceling a set of sailings. He said the company has the liquidity and no longer needs to rely on FCCs with a 25 percent premium to encourage business.
